Also, the Wikipedia article is much, much more detailed than what I’ve said here.

The Empire Collapses

Well, things may not have gone Napoleon’s way, or he may have even made a rather stupid move (which is unlikely), but let us consider what would have happened if Napoleon had been defeated. He had already been defeated once, in Egypt, but that was more of a failed expedition as opposed to a decisive battle. This was supposed to be a decisive battle, but in this timeline Napoleon was defeated. While he suffered a huge defeat in Russia years down the track, Napoleon had already become entrenched, and he was still able to raise another army to continue the war. At this stage of his empire, it was still young, and such a defeat would have been a huge blow to his career.

Having been defeated by a combined Russian and Austrian Coalition, Napoleon suddenly discovers that his allies in Germany have deserted him, the people of his conquered territories begin to rise up in revolt, and his political position back home very precarious. Embolded by their victory, the Coalition press their advantage, with their original goal of restoring the Bourbon dynasty. They quickly retake Vienna, and Napoleon returns to Paris to lick his wounds. However the Coalition do no leave it at that – they decide to march on Paris, especially since the original goal of the war was to overthrow the Republic and avenge the execution of Louis and Marie-Antoinette.

Upon returning to Paris, Napoleon discovers that he is basically no longer in charge. He is removed from his position through another coup-de-tat, this one headed up by the royalists (who are receiving support from abroad). As Coalition troops march into France, the French put up little resistance, and the remnants of Napoleon’s government are arrested, put on trial, and executed. In short, the monarchy is restored, and the Napoleonic empire is dead even before it was born.

Europe after Napoleon

To say that the Europe of this timeline is much different than ours is an immense understatement. First of all the Holy Roman Empire is never destroyed, and continues to dominate central Europe as it had done for centuries. The ideals of the French Revolution are never spread beyond its borders, and the entire bloody decade of the 1790s is simply viewed as a failed experiment. This means that the revolutions of 1848 never occur, and Louis Napoleon never becomes president of France. In fact, for quite a some time, the monarchical systems remains purely entrenched.

The thing with the Napoleonic Wars is that it gave rise to a new movement across Europe – Nationalism. With this movement we see the rise of the nation states such as Germany and Italy. By removing the Holy Roman Empire as an effective power meant that the idea of a national identity began to develop. In fact what the French Revolution did was to remove the idea that the people were the subjects of the king and gave them the idea that they were French (or German, or Italian). Cunning rulers would use this sense of nationalism through the 19th Century to unite people under a common cause and common identity. Sure, nationalism existed in one form or another prior to that, but what the French Revolution did, in removing the monarch as the head of state, gave the people a sense of actually belonging to a nation.

Another thing that Napoleon did was to create what is known as the Napoleonic Code. This was a series of civil laws designed to effectively govern the country. The Napoleonic Code is still in use in France to this day. If you are familiar with law you will know that there are two forms of civil law – common law and the civil code. Common Law is what is known as judge made law, in that judges decide cases based on previous decisions. The civil code provides guidelines for judges to determine the outcome of the cases, and while in common law countries (England, America) the judges look to case history to make a decision, in the civil code countries the judges look to the code. The thing with Europe (at least continental Europe) is that they are all covered by a civil code – which they inherited from Napoleon. Where ever Napoleon went conquering, he would establish a republic and set up a code based upon the code that he established in France. Prior to that cases where generally decided based on the whim of the rulers. In this alternate timeline, Napoleon’s complex civil code would not have been exported to the rest of Europe.

No doubt over time things would have continued to change – Prussia would have once again sought to expand its control over Germany, and the Holy Roman Empire would have continued to weaken. However the Bourbon dynasty would have been much more entrenched. Sure, pockets of resistance would have arisen, and in time the monarch would have been forced to establish a form of constitutional monarchy (especially if he had not learned from the mistakes of his predecessor). By this time the Holy Roman Empire was already weakening, as was the influence of the church. However it is unlikely that the France of today would have such a secular stance. More likely than not, modern day France would still have a king (assuming that the World Wars didn’t break out, but with Prussia’s imperial ambitions, this would have been unlikely – Germany would have reached a point where they would have become a threat to European stability).

The colonial land-grabs would no doubt have continued, but since England didn’t have to put huge amounts of resources into fighting Napoleon, the empire would no doubt have grown much faster. In fact they probably would have been seen as the new threat to European stability. There would have been no Congress of Vienna after the war, which England managed to dominate, and as such they would have found themselves, once again, facing the threat of a united Europe attempting to prevent them from becoming too powerful. When the War of 1812 broke out in North America, France would not have been embroiled in a war on the continent, and would have been able to provide more support for the Americans. However it is also unlikely that they would have sold their North American terriories. In fact, it is quite possible that the United States that we know today would not exist – a large part of the North American continent would be controlled by the French – thus no wild west, no western and, unfortunately, no Fist Full of Dollars.

This would have severely changed the outlook of the American Nation. It was the Louisana Purchase that created the idea of manifest destiny, and the desire to conquer the land from ‘sea to shining sea’. Yet the French territories were in the way, and the only way they could have taken them would have been to go to war with France. If they were to have done this they may have found themselves suddenly embroiled in European politics. The reason they were able to fight Spain was because Spain was weak and nobody came to their aid. Sure, they may have been able to  take the Louisiana Territories, but it would have suddenly revealed their imperialist ambitions. This would have come to the attention of the European Powers, and possibility even brought together an alliance between Britain and France to put a stop to this. No doubt England was itching to get back her lost colonies. Of course, there was still the war of 1812, which the English won, despite being caught up in a war on the continent. Without having to split her resources, England could have put more resources into the field, and instead of just burning the Whitehouse, could have occupied Washington, and established a puppet regime.

The Alternate Timeline

So, with these speculations above, let us consider the scenario as it would play out in our new history:

Napoleon is defeated and returns to Paris where he is arrested. The Coalition then invade France and re-establish the Bourbon Dynasty. France, having been burnt by the failed revolution, agrees accept the new king, however Louis XVII, who has learnt from his father’s mistake, agrees to establish a parliament based on the English model. Louis takes the executive role, while parliament takes the legislative role. The Napoleonic Code is retained however, and the voting franchise is restricted through a property qualification. The French republic is no more.

Hostilities in the United States results in an invasion of Canada, which brings a swift rebuke from the English. Not being constrained by a war on the continent, the British navy manages to field a lot more troops and quickly takes Washington. Congress is closed down and the president deposed. British troops once again occupy North America. A vice-roy is established and martial law is imposed. However this is to prove to be a drain on British resources and a guerilla war ensures. Britain, despite its colonial possessions, needs to continue to send in troops to keep order. This has an effect in preventing her imperial ambitions elsewhere. As such Britain never conquers India, and never manages to penetrate China.

After thirty years of war, Britain finally decides to pull out of North America, which results in the United States gaining control of Canada. However the United States is still restrained by the Louisiana Terriorties to the West. Despite driving out the British, the United States is tired of war, and chooses not to move west. As such it only exists on the East Coast of North America.

While all this is happening, a new ruler arises in Prussia, and through political manoeuvring, manages to unite the German provinces. Prussia declares independence from the Holy Roman Empire, and war once again ensures. However this time Prussia manages to retain its identity, and over a period of a decade the Holy Roman Empire begins to disintegrate. Germany thus arises as a dominant power in Central Europe. This in turn results in an alliance between France and Russia, who feel threatened by the rise of Germany, and a state of cold war ensures. Eventually this breaks out into a hot war, as it did in our timeline.

Elsewhere, Britain is forced to scale back on her colonies. The Boars in South Africa take control of the Cape Colony, and France, who has successfully recovered from the revolution, expands her empire to eventually take control of India and South East Asia. Instead of the sun never setting on the British Empire, it turns out that it is France. In fact it is France that begins to make headway into China, establishing colonial trading settlements. However, since the United States is prevented from expanding west, she never establishes a presence in the Pacific.